Syrian crisis poses dilemma for Iran
Tehran: Iran, its crucial anti-Israel alliance with Syrian President Bashar Al Assad at risk from an uprising against his rule, has chosen a "wait and see" policy, driven in part by concern not to alienate anyone who might succeed him, analysts say.
Al Assad's downfall could deal a strategic blow to Shiite Muslim-dominated Iran, where confrontation towards Israel remains one of its overriding foreign policy principles. Iran has used various regional cards, including fears it could unleash militant proxies like Hezbollah and Hamas against Israeli and US interests, to deter foreign intervention in Syria.
But, analysts say the Iranian-Syrian axis now faces a serious dilemma: Should Iran stick with Al Assad at any cost or should it jettison the Islamic Republic's most important Middle East ally?
"Iran's policy is to wait and see ... We need to be patient as the situation is very unclear and very sensitive in Syria. We hope for the best possible outcome for everyone," said an Iranian government official, speaking on condition of anonymity.
Iran will be hard-pressed to find Arab allies to replace Syria, so it will be naturally keener to ensure Al Assad — whose minority Alawite sect is an offshoot of Shiite Islam — can ultimately vanquish the revolt by majority Sunni Muslims.
"A weak Al Assad is no longer an effective regional ally for Iran ... But it is better to have a weak ally rather than a Sunni leader in power in Syria," Iranian analyst Hamed Farahvashi said.
However, Iranian leaders are also worried that siding too emphatically with Al Assad could undermine their chances of establishing a beneficial relationship with any new Syrian government, analysts say.
"Iranians do not want to back the wrong horse ... It is a very sensitive period and any wrong move could have negative consequences," Farahvashi said.
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